An efficient semiparametric maxima estimator of the extremal index

The extremal index $\theta$, a measure of the degree of local dependence in the extremes of a stationary process, plays an important role in extreme value analyses. We estimate $\theta$ semiparametrically, using the relationship between the distribution of block maxima and the marginal distribution of a process to define a semiparametric model. We show that these semiparametric estimators are simpler and substantially more efficient than their parametric counterparts. We seek to improve efficiency further using maxima over sliding blocks. A simulation study shows that the semiparametric estimators are competitive with the leading estimators. An application to sea-surge heights combines inferences about $\theta$ with a standard extreme value analysis of block maxima to estimate marginal quantiles.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures. Minor edits made to version 1 prior to journal publication. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10687-015-0221-

Pathological and immunological study of an in ovo complex vaccine against infectious bursal disease

The appearance of very virulent strains of infectious bursal disease (IBD) virus at the end of the 1980s made it necessary to develop more effective immunization procedures. To facilitate this, the immunogenicity and the immunosuppressive effect of a mild (G-87), an intermediate (LIBD) and an intermediate-plus (IBDV 2512) IBDV strain were tested after the in ovo inoculation of 18-day-old SPF and broiler chicken embryos. It was established that no noteworthy difference existed between the immunized and the control embryos in hatching rate and hatching weight. The higher the virulence of the vaccine virus strain, the more severe damage it caused to the lymphocytes of the bursa of Fabricius. In SPF chickens, the haemagglutination inhibition (HI) titres induced by a Newcastle disease (ND) vaccine administered at day old decreased in inverse ratio to the virulence of the IBD vaccine strain, while in broiler chickens this was not observed. Despite the decrease of the HI titre, the level of protection did not decline, or did so only after the use of the ‘hot’ strain. SPF chickens immunized in ovo with a complex vaccine prepared from strain IBDV 2512 and IBD antibody showed the same protection against Newcastle disease as the broilers. In broiler chicken embryos immunized in ovo, only strain IBDV 2512 induced antibody production, and such chickens were protected against IBD at 3 weeks of age. The complex vaccine administered in ovo has been used successfully at farm hatcheries as well

Random forest automated supervised classification of Hipparcos periodic variable stars

We present an evaluation of the performance of an automated classification of the Hipparcos periodic variable stars into 26 types. The sub-sample with the most reliable variability types available in the literature is used to train supervised algorithms to characterize the type dependencies on a number of attributes. The most useful attributes evaluated with the random forest methodology include, in decreasing order of importance, the period, the amplitude, the V−I colour index, the absolute magnitude, the residual around the folded light-curve model, the magnitude distribution skewness and the amplitude of the second harmonic of the Fourier series model relative to that of the fundamental frequency. Random forests and a multi-stage scheme involving Bayesian network and Gaussian mixture methods lead to statistically equivalent results. In standard 10-fold cross-validation (CV) experiments, the rate of correct classification is between 90 and 100 per cent, depending on the variability type. The main mis-classification cases, up to a rate of about 10 per cent, arise due to confusion between SPB and ACV blue variables and between eclipsing binaries, ellipsoidal variables and other variability types. Our training set and the predicted types for the other Hipparcos periodic stars are available onlin

Hipparcos Variable Star Detection and Classification Efficiency

A complete periodic star extraction and classification scheme is set up and tested with the Hipparcos catalogue. The efficiency of each step is derived by comparing the results with prior knowledge coming from the catalogue or from the literature. A combination of two variability criteria is applied in the first step to select 17 006 variability candidates from a complete sample of 115 152 stars. Our candidate sample turns out to include 10 406 known variables (i.e., 90% of the total of 11 597) and 6600 contaminating constant stars. A random forest classification is used in the second step to extract 1881 (82%) of the known periodic objects while removing entirely constant stars from the sample and limiting the contamination of non-periodic variables to 152 stars (7.5%). The confusion introduced by these 152 non-periodic variables is evaluated in the third step using the results of the Hipparcos periodic star classification presented in a previous study (Dubath et al. [1]).Comment: 8 pages, 7 figure

New measurements of thousand-seed weights of species in the Pannonian flora

For understanding local and regional seed dispersal and plant establishment processes and for considering the ecotypes and other forms of specific variability, hard data of locally or regionally measured traits are necessary. We provided newly measured seed weight data of 193 taxa, out of which 24 taxa had not been represented in the SID, LEDA or BiolFlor databases. Our new measurements and formerly published data of locally collected seed weight records together covers over 70% of the Pannonian flora. However, there is still a considerable lack in seed weight data of taxonomically problematic genera, even though they are represented in the Pannonian flora with a relatively high number of species and/or subspecies (e.g. Sorbus, Rosa, Rubus, Crataegus and Hieracium). Our regional database contains very sporadic data on aquatic plants (including also numerous invasive species reported from Hungary and neighbouring countries) and some rare weeds distributed in the southwestern part of the country. These facts indicate the necessity of further seed collection and measurements

Dragon-kings: mechanisms, statistical methods and empirical evidence

This introductory article presents the special Discussion and Debate volume "From black swans to dragon-kings, is there life beyond power laws?" published in Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics in May 2012. We summarize and put in perspective the contributions into three main themes: (i) mechanisms for dragon-kings, (ii) detection of dragon-kings and statistical tests and (iii) empirical evidence in a large variety of natural and social systems. Overall, we are pleased to witness significant advances both in the introduction and clarification of underlying mechanisms and in the development of novel efficient tests that demonstrate clear evidence for the presence of dragon-kings in many systems. However, this positive view should be balanced by the fact that this remains a very delicate and difficult field, if only due to the scarcity of data as well as the extraordinary important implications with respect to hazard assessment, risk control and predictability.Comment: 20 page

<i>Gaia</i> Data Release 1. Summary of the astrometric, photometric, and survey properties

Context. At about 1000 days after the launch of Gaia we present the first Gaia data release, Gaia DR1, consisting of astrometry and photometry for over 1 billion sources brighter than magnitude 20.7. Aims. A summary of Gaia DR1 is presented along with illustrations of the scientific quality of the data, followed by a discussion of the limitations due to the preliminary nature of this release. Methods. The raw data collected by Gaia during the first 14 months of the mission have been processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC) and turned into an astrometric and photometric catalogue. Results. Gaia DR1 consists of three components: a primary astrometric data set which contains the positions, parallaxes, and mean proper motions for about 2 million of the brightest stars in common with the HIPPARCOS and Tycho-2 catalogues – a realisation of the Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution (TGAS) – and a secondary astrometric data set containing the positions for an additional 1.1 billion sources. The second component is the photometric data set, consisting of mean G-band magnitudes for all sources. The G-band light curves and the characteristics of ∼3000 Cepheid and RR-Lyrae stars, observed at high cadence around the south ecliptic pole, form the third component. For the primary astrometric data set the typical uncertainty is about 0.3 mas for the positions and parallaxes, and about 1 mas yr−1 for the proper motions. A systematic component of ∼0.3 mas should be added to the parallax uncertainties. For the subset of ∼94 000 HIPPARCOS stars in the primary data set, the proper motions are much more precise at about 0.06 mas yr−1. For the secondary astrometric data set, the typical uncertainty of the positions is ∼10 mas. The median uncertainties on the mean G-band magnitudes range from the mmag level to ∼0.03 mag over the magnitude range 5 to 20.7. Conclusions. Gaia DR1 is an important milestone ahead of the next Gaia data release, which will feature five-parameter astrometry for all sources. Extensive validation shows that Gaia DR1 represents a major advance in the mapping of the heavens and the availability of basic stellar data that underpin observational astrophysics. Nevertheless, the very preliminary nature of this first Gaia data release does lead to a number of important limitations to the data quality which should be carefully considered before drawing conclusions from the data

Identification of new therapeutic targets for osteoarthritis through genome-wide analyses of UK Biobank data

Osteoarthritis is the most common musculoskeletal disease and the leading cause of disability globally. Here, we performed a genome-wide association study for osteoarthritis (77,052 cases and 378,169 controls), analyzing four phenotypes: knee osteoarthritis, hip osteoarthritis, knee and/or hip osteoarthritis, and any osteoarthritis. We discovered 64 signals, 52 of them novel, more than doubling the number of established disease loci. Six signals fine-mapped to a single variant. We identified putative effector genes by integrating expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) colocalization, fine-mapping, and human rare-disease, animal-model, and osteoarthritis tissue expression data. We found enrichment for genes underlying monogenic forms of bone development diseases, and for the collagen formation and extracellular matrix organization biological pathways. Ten of the likely effector genes, including TGFB1 (transforming growth factor beta 1), FGF18 (fibroblast growth factor 18), CTSK (cathepsin K), and IL11 (interleukin 11), have therapeutics approved or in clinical trials, with mechanisms of action supportive of evaluation for efficacy in osteoarthritis